Türkiye in a Multipolar World: A Strategic Power Redefining Global Influence

                                    Türkiye in a Multipolar World

The international order is no longer defined by a singular hegemonic power but rather by an increasingly multipolar landscape where regional actors exert significant influence. Türkiye, long seen only as a NATO ally and a bridge between the East and the West, has repositioned itself as a strategic power in its own right. This shift is not a reaction to global instability but a deliberate move toward greater strategic autonomy. While Western-centric analyses often depict Türkiye’s foreign policy as unpredictable or transactional, they fail to grasp the deeper logic driving Türkiye’s engagements. This article argues that Türkiye is not just a regional player but a crucial architect of emerging global power dynamics, leveraging military innovation, economic diversification, and diplomatic assertiveness to carve out a new role on the world stage.

Türkiye’s Foreign Policy: Shaping, Not Following

Türkiye does not merely adjust to international shifts—it actively influences them. Its diplomatic engagements are not a precarious balancing act but a demonstration of sovereign decision-making. Türkiye has significantly expanded its diplomatic presence worldwide, operating 252 posts as of 2023, positioning it as the third-largest diplomatic network globally, following China and the United States. Türkiye’s diplomatic missions in Africa have increased from 12 in 2002 to 44 by 2022, underscoring its commitment to the continent. This growth has facilitated Türkiye’s role in mediating conflicts, such as the recent tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, where Turkish diplomats have fostered dialogue. This expansion reflects Türkiye’s strategic intent to actively influence international affairs.

Expansion in its diplomatic missions and proactive diplomacy enabled Türkiye to mediate international conflicts, as seen in its role in the Ukraine-Russia grain deal, ensuring global food security amid war tensions. Türkiye has also played a critical role in brokering agreements, including facilitating negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia, highlighting its proactive approach to conflict resolution beyond its immediate region.

NATO: A Strong Member with Independent Priorities

Türkiye is an indispensable NATO ally, yet it has received insufficient support when addressing security threats such as PKK terrorism and regional instability. NATO’s selective solidarity has led Türkiye to bolster its self-reliant security doctrine, ensuring that external pressures do not compromise its interests. The expectation that Türkiye should be a passive extension of NATO’s strategic goals is outdated and strategically naive. Türkiye in a Multipolar World

Engaging with Russia, China, and the Gulf states is not a betrayal of the West but an assertion of geopolitical pragmatism. Türkiye is constructing a regional security architecture that integrates economic and strategic cooperation beyond the limitations imposed by Western alliances. Türkiye’s influence in Africa, Central Asia, and the Balkans highlights its historical and cultural depth, reinforcing its position as a natural leader beyond NATO’s narrow framework. Türkiye in a Multipolar World

Türkiye’s Military Strategy: A Vision of Self-Reliance

Türkiye’s military expansion is not a reactionary move but a strategic imperative. While some Western narratives portray it as an unpredictable actor, Türkiye’s defence strategy is built on self-sufficiency, deterrence, and regional security.

Türkiye’s success in military innovation, particularly Bayraktar drones (TB2, Akıncı) and SIHAs, has redefined modern warfare, with exports exceeding 30 countries and bringing in billions of dollars annually. The TCG Anadolu, Türkiye’s first aircraft carrier, solidifies its maritime dominance and ability to project power beyond its immediate region. Strategic partnerships with Pakistan, Qatar, and Azerbaijan ensure that Türkiye is not isolated but at the forefront of regional defense cooperation. Türkiye’s military bases have expanded significantly from just a few in 2000 to over 10 globally in 2025, including critical locations in Somalia, Libya, and Qatar. This expansion underscores Türkiye’s commitment to securing strategic corridors and ensuring regional stability through a strong military presence. Türkiye in a Multipolar World

Türkiye has demonstrated its ability to manage conflicts independently, securing national and regional interests in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. The Montreux Convention grants Türkiye strategic control over the Black Sea, a key leverage point in global maritime security. Türkiye’s military assertiveness is a response to the security vacuum left by indecisive Western policies.

Economic Power: The Driving Force Behind Strategic Autonomy

Türkiye is not merely diversifying its economy but actively reshaping global trade routes. Its economic engagements are based on long-term resilience, not dependency.

Türkiye is expanding trade with China and Russia, not as a substitute for the EU but as part of a broader strategy of economic self-sufficiency. The Middle Corridor Initiative, which enhances connectivity between Europe and Asia, places Türkiye at the heart of global trade networks. Energy partnerships with Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Libya secure Türkiye’s long-term energy independence, reducing reliance on volatile Western markets. Türkiye’s GDP has increased from $200 billion in 2000 to over $1.2 trillion in 2025, positioning it among the world’s top 20 economies. However, internal economic challenges such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and high external debt remain hurdles to sustaining long-term growth. Despite these obstacles, Türkiye’s strategic positioning in global trade and robust industrial base provide substantial potential for further economic expansion.

The EU remains Türkiye’s largest trading partner, but Brussels’ inconsistent policies have hindered Türkiye’s full economic potential. Rather than waiting for EU accession, which may never come, Türkiye is building economic alternatives that allow it to thrive independently. Türkiye’s growing influence in Africa through trade and investment demonstrates its ability to lead in emerging markets without Western mediation. Türkiye in a Multipolar World

Türkiye as a Pillar of the New Global Order

Türkiye is no longer an actor that waits for approval from Western institutions—it is an active partner in creating the new world order. Its foreign policy, defence strategy, and economic engagements reflect a proactive vision that aligns with modern geopolitical realities.

At the 2024 Organization of Turkic States – OTS Summit, Türkiye reaffirmed its commitment to deepening economic ties through enhanced trade agreements and infrastructure development, including the Trans-Caspian East-West-Middle Corridor Initiative. Türkiye has played a leading role in shaping the organization’s strategic direction, fostering closer cooperation with members (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan) and Turkmenistan, Hungary, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as observers. With initiatives ranging from economic connectivity projects to cultural diplomacy and security collaboration, Türkiye has positioned itself as a central pillar of the Turkic world. By leveraging shared historical and cultural ties, Türkiye is reinforcing its geopolitical position and contributing to the emergence of the OTS as a significant player in international affairs.

Türkiye has also strengthened its participation in multilateral organizations such as BRICS and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Seeking more significant economic and diplomatic leverage, Ankara has explored closer ties with BRICS nations to diversify its economic alliances beyond the Western financial system. Moreover, as a key actor within the OIC, Türkiye has promoted initiatives that foster Muslim unity and economic cooperation. President Erdoğan’s recent diplomatic tour to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan underscores Ankara’s commitment to deepening ties with Muslim-majority nations and enhancing strategic collaboration in trade, defence, and technology. Türkiye in a Multipolar World

Rather than being a peripheral NATO member expected to absorb Western security risks, Türkiye is charting a course that ensures its sovereignty, security, and strategic influence. Euro-centric analyses often fail to grasp this transformation, relying on outdated notions of alliance politics. The real question is not whether Türkiye should align itself exclusively with the West but whether the West is ready to adapt to a world where Türkiye is a proactive player and independent power.

Türkiye’s recent success in the Syrian Revolution and the eventual downfall of the Assad regime serve as a testament to its strategic patience and long-term vision. While Western nations hesitated, Türkiye remained committed to supporting the Syrian people, balancing military interventions with humanitarian efforts. Due to its principled stance, this victory did not come without costs—Türkiye has faced significant domestic challenges, economic strains, and security threats. However, history has proven that geopolitical transformation requires time, effort, and resilience. The internal repercussions are undeniable, but in the end, Türkiye’s ability to influence its regional security environment and uphold its strategic goals validates its independent approach to global affairs.

The time for waiting is over. Türkiye is already shaping its role in the future of global politics, and the world must take notice.

Burak Yalım – TUIC Akademi Director

https://www.tuicakademi.org/turkiye-in-a-multipolar-world-a-strategic-power-redefining-global-influence/

The Gulf in 2025: Navigating a Multipolar World

As the Gulf region stands at a crossroads in 2025, the interplay of evolving geopolitics, economic transformation, and environmental imperatives takes center stage. This blog post explores insights from the Gulf Research Center’s 2025 Strategic Dossier, comprehensively understanding the Gulf’s critical challenges and emerging opportunities. 

Each section provides a detailed look into key issues and the contributions of leading scholars: Dr Abdulaziz Sager on U.S. policy and Gulf security; Dr Mustafa Alani on regional conflicts; Dr Christian Koch on GCC-Europe relations; Prof. Saleh Al-Khathlan on foreign policy with major powers; Prof. Giacomo Luciani on energy dynamics; Dr John Sfakianakis on economic diversification; and Dr Mohamed Abdelraouf on sustainability and environmental priorities. The Gulf in 2025

1. Regional Security and U.S. Policy: A Complex Partnership

The Gulf’s security environment remains fragile, with unresolved conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and beyond. Dr. Abdulaziz Sager emphasizes that the shifting U.S. foreign policy, particularly under the Trump II administration, could significantly reshape Gulf security dynamics. For instance, the administration’s potential hardline stance on Iran through expanded sanctions or military containment could heighten tensions, while its prioritization of Israeli normalization may strain U.S.-Saudi relations. Additionally, ambiguity over defense agreements and support for regional allies could lead Gulf states to seek alternative partnerships, reshaping traditional military alliances and introducing new diplomatic strategies. He points out that Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic balancing act—from de-escalatory stances with Iran to its firm position on Palestine—reflects a nuanced and strategic approach to foster regional stability and ensure global engagement. This marks a significant departure from traditional Gulf-U.S. alignments, underscoring a growing emphasis on regional self-reliance and collaboration.

2. Gulf Security: Facing Uncertainty and Strategic Shifts

Dr. Mustafa Alani’s analysis sheds light on the ongoing challenges of the Hamas-Israel conflict, highlighting how the prolonged confrontation has exacerbated regional instability. He argues that Iran’s strategic isolation has further escalated as its traditional allies, such as Hezbollah, face mounting pressures. Furthermore, Alani emphasizes that 2025 could be pivotal for addressing the Yemeni conflict, given the fragile ceasefires and international calls for comprehensive solutions. The Syrian crisis—following the fall of the Assad regime—adds another layer of complexity, requiring Gulf states to play a stabilizing role. This underscores the Gulf’s increasing geopolitical weight in shaping broader Middle Eastern conflicts and fostering long-term regional stability.

3. Gulf-Europe Relations: Opportunities and Tensions

Dr. Christian Koch examines the dichotomy between the GCC’s agile diplomacy and the EU’s bureaucratic inertia, highlighting how the GCC’s strategic flexibility has allowed it to maintain effective partnerships with major powers such as Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. He underscores the strengthened multilateral ties between the GCC and the EU, demonstrated by landmark initiatives such as the structured security dialogue in Riyadh and high-level summits in Brussels. However, Koch critiques the EU’s slower bureaucratic processes that have stalled progress on critical issues like trade negotiations and visa liberalization. This inertia contrasts sharply with the GCC’s proactive outreach and adaptability, which have positioned it as a key global mediator capable of navigating the complexities of a multipolar world.

4. Foreign Policy Outlook: Balancing Major Powers

Prof. Saleh Al-Khathlan emphasizes the GCC’s conservative yet adaptive foreign policies, highlighting how the intricate dynamics of global powers shape their approach. He details that China’s deepening economic partnerships with the GCC, particularly in energy and trade, have strengthened strategic ties. Meanwhile, shifts in U.S. policy—from reintroducing harsh sanctions on Iran to promoting Israeli normalization agreements—create complex challenges for the region. Al-Khathlan underscores that the ability of key GCC states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar to strategically maneuver through these diverging priorities reflects their increasing geopolitical agency and ambition to assert a leading role in regional and global affairs.

5. Energy Dynamics: Strategic Realignment in the Gulf

As oil markets grapple with bearish trends, Prof. Giacomo Luciani critiques the internal discord within OPEC+, noting that the group’s indecision has led to uncertainty in market dynamics. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 investments, which rely heavily on maintaining high oil prices, highlight the critical financial challenges faced by the Kingdom. Luciani further emphasizes that non-compliance by certain OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, exacerbates the difficulties of maintaining production limits, while the UAE’s demand for higher quotas adds to the strain. With global trends indicating an impending demand peak by 2030, Luciani stresses that a unified and disciplined OPEC strategy is essential to avoiding price wars and mitigating external pressures from increasing U.S. shale oil production. He also warns that prolonged discord could weaken OPEC’s influence, making it harder to stabilize prices in a competitive energy market.

6. Gulf Economy: Diversification and Innovation

Dr. John Sfakianakis highlights the Gulf’s transition toward renewable energy, technology, and tourism, emphasizing that strategic mega-projects drive the region’s economic diversification. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, a futuristic urban hub, and the UAE’s fintech boom exemplify how Gulf states leverage innovation and sustainability to redefine their economies. Sfakianakis points out that these developments are reshaping local industries, attracting global investment, and fostering international collaboration. He further elaborates on the significance of integrating technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy solutions, into economic frameworks to ensure sustainable growth. This forward-looking approach, grounded in economic diversity and leadership in innovation, is deemed crucial for the Gulf’s resilience in an increasingly competitive global economy.

7. Sustainability at the Core: Environmental Leadership in the GCC

Dr. Mohamed Abdelraouf underscores the centrality of environmental sustainability in the GCC’s national visions, emphasizing that these efforts are woven into broader economic and developmental strategies. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Middle East Green Initiative and the UAE’s Net Zero 2050 agenda highlight the region’s commitment to reducing carbon footprints and promoting renewable energy adoption. Abdelraouf points out that Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy projects alone aim to exceed 8 GW in capacity by 2024, with additional projects under development, showcasing a shift toward clean energy infrastructure. Moreover, the region’s hosting of key international events, such as COP28 in the UAE and the IUCN World Conservation Congress in Abu Dhabi, reflects its leadership in global environmental governance. Despite uncertainties from global political shifts, such as potential U.S. withdrawal from climate agreements, Abdelraouf argues that the GCC’s ambitious policies position it as a transformative player in green investment and sustainable transitions, fostering regional collaboration and global influence.

Conclusion

The Gulf in 2025 embodies a region navigating complex global dynamics, from security and energy to economic and environmental strategies. As articulated in the Gulf Research Center’s dossier, the region’s adaptive diplomacy, strategic diversification, and sustainability initiatives underscore its pivotal role on the world stage. The insights provided by esteemed experts such as Dr. Abdulaziz Sager and Dr. Mustafa Alani are invaluable for comprehending the multifaceted challenges and opportunities shaping the region. Their analyses not only elucidate the strategic priorities of Gulf nations but also offer a roadmap for engaging with these dynamics effectively. While the dossier excels in detailing key regional trends, it notably omits discussions on critical aspects such as migration, labor migrants, and expatriates, who form a crucial part of the GCC’s socioeconomic fabric. Additionally, the report’s lack of focus on the growing re-alignment with regional powers such as Türkiye is a significant oversight. The past year witnessed high-level engagements between GCC states and Türkiye, highlighting a strategic partnership that deserves attention alongside mentions of the U.S., China, Russia, and Iran. Including these dimensions would provide a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the Gulf’s evolving dynamics. Nevertheless, the expert perspectives make this document an indispensable resource for policymakers, academics, and stakeholders invested in the Gulf’s future.

The Gulf in 2025

https://www.tuicakademi.org/the-gulf-in-2025-gulf-research-center/